News summary

Liu Jinjin's analysis shows thatasiangamegame, after the bear market turned bullasiangamegame, there is a 60% probability that the stock market will continue to rise, and the return rate is expected to reach 35% within half a year, making profit improvement the key. There is still much room for improvement in the dividend ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

Newsletter text

[The probability of a technical bull market is 60%, and the average return rate may be as high as 35%] Liu Jinjin, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, revealed in a recent interview in Shanghai that based on data from the past 20 years, after a certain market meets the conditions for a technical bull market, there is a 60% chance of continuing growth, and the possible return rate in the next six months will reach 35%. As market conditions evolve, the driving force of expected earnings gradually shifts from an increase in market value to an improvement in company performance. Therefore, growth in corporate earnings is crucial to a continued bull market. In addition, Liu Jinjin pointed out that under the new "National Nine Articles" policy framework, improving the dividend rate and repurchase ability of listed companies is crucial to investors 'returns and is the focus of attention of overseas investors. At present, the dividend yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is about 33%, which is far lower than the median of 50% in the Japanese stock market and 60% in the European stock market in the past ten years, showing obvious room for growth.

asiangamegame| Goldman Sachs Strategist: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Dividend Rate 33% Technical Bull Market Growth Rate 60%

Date: 2024-05-26