topandroidcryptogames| ATFX currency market: U.S. CPI data hits in April, market expectations will be lower than previous values

2024年05月15日

ATFX foreign exchange market: 20:30 todayTopandroidcryptogamesThe U.S. Department of Labor will release US CPI data for April, two of which are closely watched: one is the core CPI annual rate in April, the previous value was 3.TopandroidcryptogamesThe expected value is 3.6%, which is expected to decline by 0.2%; the second is the nominal CPI annual rate in April, which is 3.5%, and the expected value is 3.4%, which is expected to decline by .01%. The other two monthly rate data are: April core CPI monthly rate, the previous value is 0.4%, the expected value is 0.3%, and the nominal CPI monthly rate in April, the previous value is 0.4%, the expected value is the same. Unless the monthly rate data change more than expected, the annual rate data will have a greater impact on the market and market sentiment.

According to historical data, the annual rate of core CPI in the United States has been in a "horizontal" state in the past three months, and the rising and falling trend is not obvious. The maximum value of the past three months is 3.9%, the minimum value is 3.8%, the fluctuation amplitude is 0.1%, and the average value is 3.883%. The annual rate of CPI in April is expected to be between the maximum and the minimum, closer to 3.883%. The market expectation value of 3.6% has fallen below the lowest value in the past three months, and the probability of achieving the expectation is not high (on behalf of my personal opinion). In the past six months, the maximum annual rate of CPI is 4%, the minimum value is 3.8%, and the average is 3.9%. In the past year, the maximum value is 5.6%, the minimum value is 3.8%, and the average is 4.808%. The average value continues to rise with the lengthening of the calculation cycle, which means that the current CPI annual rate in the United States is in a stable medium-and long-term downward trend.

The long-term performance of nominal CPI annual rate data is basically consistent with that of core CPI annual rate data: the longer the calculation cycle, the higher the average, which means that inflation is steadily declining. The average annual growth rate of nominal CPI in the last three months is 3.27 per cent, and the public value for April is expected to be near that average, with a maximum of 3.5 per cent and a minimum of 3.1 per cent. If the final public value exceeds the upper and lower limits, it means that the higher-than-expected data will lead to distance fluctuations in the dollar index, gold and silver, and the US stock market index.

The non-farm payrolls report released on April 3rd showed that the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was 175000, lower than the previous figure of 315000 and below the expected figure of 243000. The unemployment rate also rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, and the labour market showed signs of weakening. The non-farm payrolls report is the earliest monthly indicator of the state of the economy last month. The unexpectedly cold non-farm payrolls report in April means that macroeconomic performance weakens in April, increasing the likelihood that core and nominal CPI annualized rates in April will be lower than previous values. Based on this, we believe that the published values of core and nominal CPI annualized rates for April may be between the minimum and average values of the past three months.

ATFX risk reminder, exemption clause, special statement: there are risks in the market, investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference. Analysts' views are subject to change at different times and are updated without notice.

[risk Tip] according to the relevant regulations on foreign exchange management, the buying and selling of foreign exchange shall be carried out at the trading venues prescribed by banks and other countries. Whoever buys and sells foreign exchange privately, buys and sells foreign exchange in disguise, buys and sells foreign exchange or illegally introduces a relatively large amount of foreign exchange shall be imposed by the foreign exchange control agency according to law; if the case constitutes a crime, he shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.

topandroidcryptogames| ATFX currency market: U.S. CPI data hits in April, market expectations will be lower than previous values

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